This Time It's Permanent

If we can get it right, this boom could last forever.

In the past the Alberta oil and gas booms and busts have been tied to two pivotal details - access to markets and the world price of oil.

But things changed two years ago when the production of petroleum from the oil sands surpassed conventional production for the first time.

No longer is the oil industry in Alberta reliant on discovering oil and gas, fighting for a place in the market, and at the mercy of international oil prices.

Okay, that may be overstating the case, but the oil patch in Alberta is now a commodity like coal. We have an almost unlimited supply of petroleum in the oil sands and the international demand for oil is strong and getting stronger.

The Alberta government has the opportunity to create a stable and sustainable economic climate. Or at least there is more of a chance now than ever before.

The royalty rate issue, so dominant in the daily news, is actually just a temporary distraction.

The real question is much larger. Can Alberta manage the boom, this time, in a way that will create economic, social and environmental stability?

Is This Normal?

Housing prices in Calgary just fell $20,000. The price of natural gas is down again. Hurricanes are ripping through the Gulf of Mexico.

Do any of these events affect the Great Alberta Oil Boom? Surely this one can't be over already!

But, as songwriter Bruce Cockburn wrote, "The trouble with normal is it always gets worse."

Just when we think the Alberta economy is stable, and booming forever, we once again experience the annoying realities of a fast-paced life. And of being a relatively small economy linked closely to the international petroleum world.

Dozens of factors determine the severity and length of each part of Alberta's booms and busts. For more details on how to live through the cycle with relative peace of mind see my new book: Pumped: Everyone's Guide to the Oil Patch - in stores now!